How much does this year's Thanksgiving dinner cost?
A classic Thanksgiving dinner for 10 should cost about $59 this year, or just under $6 a person. That's up roughly 7% from last year's $55.18, according to our estimate built from government price data.
If that sounds like more than the grocery inflation you've been hearing about, you're right. Grocery prices overall are up only 1.8% in the past year. Thanksgiving is running hotter for one reason, and it's the bird in the middle of the table.
Here's what each part of the meal costs, why the turkey is the outlier, and what happens to prices once Thanksgiving is over and December shopping starts.
Data as of November 7, 2026: BLS prices through September 2026 and turkey prices through early November. We'll update this post with the October CPI (out November 10) and with AFBF's 2026 survey when it's released.
The menu, item by item
We started with the same shopping list the American Farm Bureau Federation has priced every year since 1986: a 16-pound turkey and the classic sides for 10 people. Then we applied each item's price change over the past 12 months: the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Consumer Price Index for the sides, and wholesale and retail turkey prices for the bird.
| Item | 2025 (AFBF) | 2026 estimate | Change | What moved it |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey, 16 lb frozen | $21.50 | $22.90–$26.30 | +6% to +22% | Wholesale +6.5%; retail sale prices +22% |
| Sweet potatoes, 3 lb | $4.00 | $4.11 | +2.8% | Fresh vegetables |
| Pumpkin pie mix, 30 oz | $4.16 | $4.30 | +3.3% | Canned fruits and vegetables |
| Stuffing, 14 oz | $3.71 | $3.79 | +2.1% | Cereals and bakery |
| Whole milk, 1 gallon | $3.73 | $3.82 | +2.3% | Milk |
| Misc. ingredients | $3.61 | $3.67 | +1.8% | All groceries |
| Dinner rolls, 12 | $3.56 | $3.63 | +2.1% | Cereals and bakery |
| Pie crusts, 2 | $3.37 | $3.44 | +2.1% | Cereals and bakery |
| Cranberries, 12 oz fresh | $2.28 | $2.39 | +4.9% | Fresh fruits |
| Peas, 1 lb frozen | $2.03 | $2.08 | +2.3% | Frozen fruits and vegetables |
| Whipping cream, ½ pint | $1.87 | $1.87 | −0.1% | Other dairy, incl. cream |
| Veggie tray, 1 lb carrots and celery | $1.36 | $1.40 | +2.8% | Fresh vegetables |
| Total for 10 | $55.18 | $57.40–$60.80 | +4% to +10% | |
| Per person | $5.52 | $5.74–$6.08 |
Take the turkey out and the other eleven items cost $34.50, up just 2.4% from $33.68. The turkey is 39% of last year's bill and about 80% of this year's increase.
Your total will depend on where you live. Last year AFBF found the South cheapest ($50.01) and the West most expensive ($61.75). Adding a ham, mashed potatoes and green beans pushed the 2025 total to $77.09.
AFBF is expected to publish its 2026 survey the week of November 16. We'll add its numbers here when it does.
Why turkey costs more when there are more turkeys
This is the odd part. Turkey farmers are raising more birds this year, not fewer. Production is up nearly 6% by weight after a 2025 drop of more than 8%, according to Texas A&M AgriLife economist David Anderson. "That tells me there are plenty of turkeys," he says.
Prices are still higher because last year was unusually cheap, not because this year is unusually tight:
- Retail prices are catching up. A frozen whole turkey averaged $1.26 a pound at the grocery store in early November, up from $1.03 a year ago, according to Anderson. Last year stores ran fewer turkey specials than usual.
- Wholesale prices rose all year. Whole turkeys averaged $1.80 a pound wholesale in late October, up from $1.69 a year earlier. USDA expects the 2026 average to land near $1.76, up from $1.36 in 2025, citing tight supplies of whole birds.
- The range in our table is the sale question. If your store matches last year's deals, expect the low end. If it doesn't, expect the high end.
The rest of the table is the quieter story of 2026 groceries:
- Dairy is mixed. Milk is up 2.3% from a year ago and cream is flat. Butter is down 17%, good news for anyone baking pies.
- Eggs are a bargain again. The average dozen cost $2.27 in September, down 35% from a year earlier.
- Produce is up most. Fresh fruit is up 4.9%, canned fruits and vegetables 3.3% and fresh vegetables 2.8%, which is why cranberries, pie mix, sweet potatoes and the veggie tray rose fastest after the turkey.
- Bakery items are steady. Stuffing, rolls and pie crusts are up about 2%, in line with groceries overall.
For the full category-by-category picture, see Grocery prices in 2026.
What happens to prices in December
Thanksgiving starts six weeks of holiday cooking. We looked at nine years of government price data to see what that does to prices.
Ham gets cheaper into December, eggs get pricier, and almost everything rises in January
Typical (median) month-to-month change in the U.S. average retail price, holiday seasons 2017–2025. Green = cheaper than the month before, red = pricier.
Oct → Nov
- Ham−3.3%
- Butter−4.3%
- Flour−3.0%
- Sugar−0.1%
- Eggs+3.1%
- All groceries−0.2%
Nov → Dec
- Ham−3.4%
- Butter−0.2%
- Flour+0.4%
- Sugar−0.2%
- Eggs+9.3%
- All groceries+0.3%
Dec → Jan
- Ham+2.5%
- Butter+3.3%
- Flour+2.1%
- Sugar+2.0%
- Eggs−1.0%
- All groceries+0.6%
BLS CPI Average Price Data and the CPI food-at-home index, U.S. city average, not seasonally adjusted, October 2017 to January 2026. BLS collected no prices in October 2025 (government shutdown), so Oct → Nov covers 2017–2024. The butter series starts in 2018. GroceryTrack analysis; BLS does not endorse it.
Three patterns hold up year after year:
- November is the cheap month for baking staples. Butter and flour fell from October to November in every year we have data. Stores often discount them ahead of holiday baking.
- Ham keeps getting cheaper through December. It fell from November to December in all nine years. If ham is your Christmas centerpiece, there's no reason to buy it early.
- January is when the bill catches up. Butter, flour, sugar and ham rose from December to January in all but one year. The overall grocery index rose every single January.
Eggs are the exception. They got pricier from November to December in seven of the nine years, typically by about 9%, and by more than 13% in 2017, 2022, 2023 and 2024. Last December, with prices falling back from the bird-flu peak, they dropped 5%.
The overall grocery index barely moves in December. The savings and the spikes cancel out in the average, which is exactly why the average is a poor guide to your own holiday bill.
What to do with this:
- Stock up on butter and flour before Thanksgiving, not after New Year's. Butter freezes for months.
- Buy the turkey in the two weeks before Thanksgiving, when sale prices are lowest. Then watch for a cheap ham the week after.
- Buy eggs for Christmas baking early in December rather than the week before.
What this estimate can't tell you
It's a national average. Last year the gap between the cheapest and most expensive region was almost $12 for the same meal.
It assumes no coupons and no deals. AFBF's shoppers look for the best price without coupons or purchase deals, so a store's "free turkey with $50 purchase" can beat every number here.
It isn't your menu. Few families cook exactly this list. Add a ham, a second pie or a bottle of wine and your total looks nothing like $59.
Frequently asked questions
Is Thanksgiving dinner more expensive this year?
Probably, by about $2 to $5.60 for 10 people. Turkey sale prices are the main reason. Most side dishes cost about what they did last year.
When is the cheapest time to buy a turkey?
The one to two weeks before Thanksgiving, when stores run their deepest promotions. About 2,500 stores were already advertising frozen whole birds in late October.
Should I buy my Christmas ham now?
No. In government price data, ham got cheaper from November to December in every year since 2017.
Find out what your Thanksgiving actually cost
The numbers above describe a national shopping list. Your dinner is a different list at different stores, and the only record of what it cost is your receipts.
Scan or forward your Thanksgiving receipts to GroceryTrack and you'll see the meal's real total, what you paid per pound for the turkey, and how it compares with last year's receipts. Keep scanning through December and you'll know whether the ham and butter deals actually showed up at your store. The free plan covers 10 receipts a month, and there's no card required.
Get started
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After the trial, basic features remain free. If you want the full experience, the Pro plan is available at $3.99/month for early adopters.
Sources: American Farm Bureau Federation, "Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines" (November 19, 2025) (2025 item prices, regional and expanded-menu totals); Bureau of Labor Statistics, Consumer Price Index — September 2026 (12-month changes for food at home and each category); BLS CPI Average Price Data, U.S. city average, for eggs, butter, ham, flour, sugar and the food-at-home index; High Plains Journal / Texas A&M AgriLife, "Plenty of turkeys this Thanksgiving" (November 6, 2026) (turkey production, wholesale and retail prices); Food World News on USDA's October WASDE (October 14, 2026) (2026 wholesale turkey and egg forecasts).